Končí další hype? Akvizice Microsoftu říkají, že ano
Vlnění a střídání dvou opačných stavů je v našem světě docela důležité a Schrödinger i se svou kočkou, by mohli vyprávět. :-)
Růst a pokles jsou pravidelně se střídající stavy. Posledním dokladem byl pokles finančních trhů, po období utěšeného růstu, kdy se nafukoval hypoteční trh, až více nemohl a splaskl. Občas se spekuluje, že pnutí kolem webu 2.0 je také bublina a čeká nás brzké splasknutí. Pokud bych měl soudit podle akvizicí Microsoftu, tak bych konec bubliny čekal někdy tento nebo příští rok.
Podívejte se sami, jak rostly akvizice na konci 90. let minulého století a následně přišel velký útlum v letech 2001. V posledních dvou letech opět akvizice silně vzrůstají a stačilo by píchnout špendlíčkem… Největší nákupy se dějí v oblasti technologií podporující online reklamní trh. Stačí zmínit doposud největší akvizici Microsoftu - koupě firmy aQuantive, která byla v objemu 6 miliard dolarů.
Při pohledu na strukturu příjmů je vidět, že tyto akvizice žádný výrazný příjem nepřinesly. Microsoft měl v roce 2007 ze segmentu online služeb příjem přibližně 2,5 miliardy dolarů, což je asi o 100 milionů více, než měl v roce 2005.
V kontrastu k tomu IBM koupila v roce 2002 poradenskou část firmy PricewaterhouseCoopers za 3.9 miliardy dolarů. A z výročních zpráv je vidět, že příjem z konzultačních služeb jí vzrostl o 10 miliard hned v následujícím roce.
Rozdíl je jasný, jedna firma zaplatí více jak 6 miliard a rozdíl příjmů je 100 milionů a druhá zaplatí 3.9 miliardy a rozdíl příjmů je 10 miliard. Nejsem si úplně jistý, zda jsou tyto dvě věci naprosto porovnatelné, protože neznám pozadí obou akvizic, nevím jestli v případě IBM nebyl růst příjmů způsoben ještě něčím jiným, ale v hrubém přiblížení bych řekl, že nákupy Microsoftu tu bublinu opravdu nafukují.
Někdo víte více? Podělte se, prosím.
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